A Mathematical Deconstruction of Market Liquidation Cycles: Beyond the Illusion of Martingale Systems
The Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) has remained range-bound between 2,500 and 2,750 points for over 18 months as of Q2 2024. During this period, the average daily trading volume of domestic institutional investors fluctuated by approximately 42% compared to the previous year, while the proportion of program trading consistently exceeded 35% of total market turnover. These are not mere statistics; they are the mathematical footprints of systemic capital movement. Beneath the surface-level narratives of economic recovery and recession lies a more fundamental, algorithmic reality: the market is a continuous process of position building and liquidation by major players. The romanticized notion of a "martingale system"—doubling down after losses for a guaranteed eventual win—is a dangerous mirage in this environment, one I have paid for with significant capital during my early quant development phases. This analysis dissects the actual map of insti...