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A Mathematical and Systemic Analysis of Martingale Strategies Under Macroeconomic (CPI/Interest Rate) Stress: An Inquiry into Zero-Liquidation Risk Claims

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The persistent elevation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the subsequent tightening of monetary policy by central banks globally have created a uniquely challenging environment for retail investors. In South Korea, the situation is particularly acute. According to data from Statistics Korea, the core CPI (excluding food and energy) has consistently remained above 3% year-on-year for over two years, while the Bank of Korea's base rate has been held at a restrictive 3.50%. This macroeconomic pressure compresses asset valuations and amplifies volatility across all markets, from equities to cryptocurrencies. Within this crucible of uncertainty, a seductive narrative has regained traction among certain trading communities: the concept of a "mathematical system" or "strategy" capable of achieving near-zero liquidation risk, often rooted in variations of the Martingale principle. This analysis will dissect the profound fallacies of this approa...